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LONDON – Sport 4 ever: Chelsea and Tottenham without European football could have a significant advantage in the Premier League this season after both clubs endured disappointing domestic campaigns last term. With fewer competitive fixtures, more uninterrupted training time and major changes in the dugout and squad, can Chelsea and Tottenham turn the absence of European football into a platform for a dramatic revival?
Chelsea and Tottenham enter the new Premier League campaign with a very different mood from the one that followed them into the summer. Both clubs finished 10th last season, missed out on European competition and now face the challenge of converting disappointment into progress.
The lack of European football means neither club has to balance Premier League commitments with Champions League, Europa League or Conference League fixtures. That creates a different weekly rhythm, with fewer midweek matches and more opportunities for managers to work with their players on the training ground.
Chelsea have appointed Xabi Alonso and made major changes to their squad, including the addition of experienced players after fielding the youngest squad in the Premier League last season. Tottenham, meanwhile, have entrusted Roberto De Zerbi with a new tactical direction while giving him greater flexibility in the transfer market.
History suggests that the two London clubs have plenty of reason for optimism.
Chelsea and Tottenham without European football: what history tells us
A review of previous seasons involving Premier League clubs from the traditional ‘big six’ offers an intriguing pattern. Since the late 2000s, there have been 11 occasions when one of those clubs moved from a season in European competition to the following campaign without continental football.
In 10 of those 11 cases, the club improved both its points total and its final league position.
That represents a success rate of roughly 91 per cent.
The average improvement across those examples amounted to 16 Premier League points. The clubs also climbed almost five places in the table on average, while seven of the 11 teams subsequently finished inside the top four.
Those figures do not prove that the absence of European football automatically produces better results. Football rarely allows such a simple conclusion. A poor season can naturally lead to a rebound, while a new manager, stronger recruitment and improved player availability can all influence the outcome.
Nevertheless, the historical pattern gives Chelsea and Tottenham an encouraging reference point.
The one exception came when Liverpool moved from a European campaign to a season without continental football but still went backwards. Their points tally fell from 58 to 52, while their league position slipped from sixth to eighth.
That example serves as an important warning. Fewer matches do not guarantee improvement.
For Chelsea and Tottenham, however, several other circumstances strengthen the argument that they can benefit from the lighter schedule.
Chelsea and Tottenham without European football have recent evidence
Chelsea have already experienced the potential impact of removing European commitments from their schedule.
The clearest example came after one of the most difficult seasons in the club’s recent history. Chelsea finished 10th and missed out on European qualification after a turbulent campaign that saw Jose Mourinho leave and Guus Hiddink take charge until the end of the season.
Antonio Conte then arrived and produced an extraordinary turnaround.
Chelsea collected 93 points in the following campaign and won the Premier League title, adding 43 points to their previous total. Tottenham finished second, seven points behind the champions.
The scale of that improvement remains one of the strongest examples of how dramatically a major club can recover after a disappointing season.
There are also similarities between that situation and Chelsea’s current circumstances.
Last season brought another managerial upheaval. Enzo Maresca left his position before Liam Rosenior took charge, with Calum McFarlane overseeing the closing stage of the campaign. Chelsea again ended the season in 10th place.
Now Alonso has the opportunity to establish a new identity at Stamford Bridge.
The former Real Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen coach does not have to prepare his squad for European competition during the week. That potentially gives him additional time to introduce his tactical ideas, improve relationships between players and work on details that become more difficult to address when teams play every three or four days.
Chelsea have also broken the British transfer record and added experience to a squad that previously had a remarkably young profile.
That combination could prove important.
Why Chelsea could make a major leap
Chelsea’s prospects cannot simply rest on the absence of European football.
The club needs Alonso to impose his ideas quickly, while established players must provide the leadership that was sometimes missing from a youthful squad. The development of key individuals will also influence how far Chelsea can climb.
Cole Palmer remains one of the central figures in that equation. If he raises his level again, Chelsea’s attacking potential could increase considerably.
Morgan Rogers also represents an important factor in the club’s ambitions. His contribution could help give Chelsea another dimension in the final third and reduce the pressure on individual players to produce decisive moments every week.
The starting point from last season also deserves attention.
Maresca’s Chelsea collected 30 points from their first 19 matches before his departure. Their form had already begun to slow towards the end of his tenure, with only one victory in his final seven games.
That early-season pace pointed towards a campaign of around 60 points if maintained over the full schedule.
A total in that region can put a club into contention for European qualification, but it does not normally suggest a title-winning campaign. For Chelsea to challenge at the very top, Alonso must extract considerably more from the squad.
That is where the European-free schedule could become valuable.
Chelsea can potentially spend more time preparing for individual opponents. The coaching staff can dedicate entire weeks to tactical work rather than recovering players from a European trip before immediately preparing for the next league fixture.
The club can also rotate less frequently.
That does not guarantee better performances, but it can help a manager establish a settled team.
Tottenham’s opportunity under Roberto De Zerbi
Tottenham face a similar opportunity, although their route back towards the top of the Premier League will look different.
Their previous campaign ended with an eighth-place finish and 60 points after they had reached the Champions League round of 16 the season before.
Without European competition, Spurs improved to fifth place and 66 points in the subsequent campaign.
That six-point increase offers another example of the potential benefit of a lighter schedule.
Tottenham now have De Zerbi in charge and a new tactical project to develop. The Italian coach has also benefited from greater room in the transfer budget, allowing the club to strengthen areas of the squad.
His task involves more than simply improving Tottenham’s league position.
Spurs need a clear playing identity, greater consistency and enough depth to cope with the physical demands of the Premier League. The absence of European fixtures could help De Zerbi introduce his system without the same pressure created by a congested calendar.
James Maddison’s fitness could also have an important influence.
A healthy and productive Maddison would give Tottenham another creative option and could become particularly valuable within a new tactical structure.
The club have also added defenders and midfielders, creating another source of optimism. If those new arrivals settle quickly, Tottenham could benefit from a stronger balance between defence, midfield and attack.
The question is whether those improvements can translate into enough points to challenge for the Champions League places.
Fewer games could change the weekly rhythm
The most obvious advantage for Chelsea and Tottenham is not necessarily the number of matches they will avoid. It is the way the absence of European football changes the entire working week.
A club involved in Europe can face a demanding sequence of fixtures, travel and recovery periods. Managers often have limited opportunities to train their preferred starting XI together.
That forces coaches to prioritise recovery and squad rotation.
Chelsea and Tottenham should have more complete training weeks. Alonso and De Zerbi can spend additional time correcting tactical problems, preparing specific plans for opponents and developing patterns of play.
Players also receive more recovery time.
That can matter during the most demanding periods of the Premier League season, when injuries and fatigue begin to influence selection decisions.
The benefits can extend beyond physical freshness.
A manager who has several days between matches can spend more time reviewing performances with the squad. Players can work on positioning, pressing structures, defensive transitions and attacking combinations without the immediate pressure of another fixture.
For clubs attempting to establish new systems, those extra sessions can become particularly valuable.
The same logic helped Manchester United last season. They played only 40 matches, and the lighter schedule became one of the factors associated with their dramatic improvement and eventual return to the Champions League positions.
Chelsea and Tottenham will hope to draw a similar benefit.
Why the schedule alone cannot explain a revival
There is a danger in making European football the sole explanation for the improvement seen in previous examples.
The clubs that appear in these historical comparisons generally enter the season after an unusually poor campaign. A natural rebound should therefore form part of the analysis.
Chelsea and Tottenham both finished 10th last season. Their supporters would reasonably expect better results even if both clubs had remained in European competition.
Managerial changes can also transform a team’s trajectory.
Alonso has arrived at Chelsea with a reputation for modern tactical football, while De Zerbi brings his own established philosophy to Tottenham. If either manager quickly convinces his players to adopt a new system, the effect could prove greater than any scheduling advantage.
Recruitment adds another layer.
Chelsea have strengthened their squad with experienced players, while Tottenham have invested in defenders and midfielders. Those changes can improve the clubs independently of their European commitments.
The psychological impact also matters.
A team that begins a season with renewed confidence can perform very differently from one that spends months dealing with uncertainty. Both clubs now have a clear opportunity to leave last season behind.
The historical numbers therefore provide context rather than a prediction.
Can Chelsea challenge for the Premier League title?
Chelsea’s supporters may reasonably wonder whether the combination of Alonso, new signings and a clear calendar can take the club all the way into the title race.
History provides reasons for confidence, but it does not support an automatic leap from 10th to first.
Chelsea’s underlying level last season was difficult to establish because of the managerial changes and inconsistent form. Their opening 19 matches under Maresca offered evidence of a side capable of collecting points at a respectable rate, but their subsequent decline showed how quickly momentum could disappear.
Alonso therefore has several questions to answer.
Can he make Chelsea more consistent? Can the experienced additions provide stability? Can Palmer maintain elite attacking production? Can Rogers make a significant impact? And can the wider squad turn its considerable potential into reliable Premier League performances?
If the answer to most of those questions is yes, the lack of European football could amplify Chelsea’s improvement.
A title challenge would still require an enormous step forward.
It would also require Chelsea to outperform clubs that have maintained their European ambitions while operating at a very high level domestically.
For now, a return to the Champions League places appears a more natural benchmark.
That would already represent a substantial recovery from 10th.
What a successful Tottenham season could look like
Tottenham face a similar balancing act.
A significant improvement under De Zerbi would probably involve more than simply moving several places up the table. Spurs need to show that the new manager’s tactical ideas can survive the intensity of English football.
The absence of European football gives him an advantage in that process.
De Zerbi can use training sessions to establish his preferred build-up patterns, defensive organisation and attacking movements. Players can spend more time understanding their individual responsibilities within the system.
The recruitment of new defenders and midfielders should also give him additional options.
Maddison’s return to fitness could add another creative element, while the new arrivals may improve Tottenham’s ability to control matches.
If those factors combine effectively, Spurs can target another climb towards the upper reaches of the table.
The historical comparison with their previous European-free campaign provides a useful reference. Tottenham moved from eighth with 60 points to fifth with 66 when they no longer had continental football to manage.
A similar improvement this time would again put them in the conversation for European qualification.
The bigger ambition, however, will be to challenge for a place in the Champions League.
History favours the London clubs, but football decides
The evidence is clear enough to make the absence of European football an intriguing advantage for both Chelsea and Tottenham.
Among the 11 relevant big-six examples examined since the late 2000s, 10 produced an improvement in both points and league position. The average gain reached 16 points, while teams climbed almost five places and seven of those clubs subsequently finished in the top four.
Those numbers are difficult to ignore.
Chelsea also have the spectacular Conte example, while Tottenham have their own recent evidence of improvement after losing European commitments.
Yet neither club can assume that history will repeat itself.
Chelsea need Alonso’s coaching, experienced recruitment and their leading players to produce a sustained improvement. Tottenham need De Zerbi’s system, new signings and the return of key players to work together.
The lighter calendar simply gives both managers a better environment in which to do that work.
That could prove particularly important during the decisive stretches of the Premier League campaign.
If Chelsea and Tottenham return to the top four, their supporters may look back at missing out on Europe as an unexpected advantage rather than a punishment for a poor previous season.
The numbers suggest that possibility is real.
The next test will come on the pitch.
FAQ
Why are Chelsea and Tottenham not playing European football?
Both clubs finished 10th in the Premier League last season and therefore failed to qualify for European competition.
How much can clubs improve without European football?
The historical sample shows an average improvement of 16 points and a rise of almost five league places.
Who manages Chelsea?
Xabi Alonso is Chelsea’s new head coach and is targeting a return to European football.
Who manages Tottenham?
Roberto De Zerbi is Tottenham’s head coach and has begun a new tactical project at the club.
